Archive for the ‘Lies That Steal Our Wealth’ Category

Science or Opinion?

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

A few days ago I wrote about the issue of science and soft science.

Yesterday I had occasion to think back to that post. Yesterday I attended a training session for a CRM program. I want to know how to use the software and they tried to tell me about a philosophy. I had a few irritations – in the first instance they want everybody to run their business in the same way. I don’t have the same business as the person selling widgets every day. I cannot cross sell, because I have only one product. Unless I change my goals completely, I don’t want a 1000 clients. I managed to keep my irritation and frustration in check.

Then the whole thing dwindled down to sales training and the presenter saying to one person “that will not work. You HAVE to do it like this.” That is when I lost control and just had to ask: “Is this exact science, like 1+1 = 2, or is it soft science and it is an opinion? Obviously the delegate has been selling successfully, so how can you say it does not work? How can you say cold calling does not work? I venture to say that there is the same number of books saying cold calling does not work as those that say cold calling does work.” Then the story changed – “I never said ..” Which is interesting, because that is what you said right now. “But if you do what we say and you cold call …” There is a vast difference between saying cold calling does not work and calling calling is hard work and not the most effective way to get clients! I think you would agree with that.

And when I left Cape Town and 45 minutes after getting into my car I have only gone 1.7km’s, that’s when I decided I really wasted my time.

Now I feel better – thanks. But the lesson is still there. Perhaps we should encourage people to be more honest. What about: “In my opinion …” or “In my experience …” or “There are other ways of doing it, but you can also try this …”

The problem with many of these categorical statements, is that it denies personalities, skills, training, comfort zones, background and a lot of other variables. For instance, I am not a very sociable person. I do not have a lot of friends and I prefer not to do business with friends. I am not good at small talk. I am not interested in rugby. You cannot fit me into the same mould as the outgoing guy who is the soul of the party and makes friends with everybody. The problem is – people try and present their case as fact, truth, gospel. And we believe them, because they are the experts.

I know what the effect can be – because on more than one occasion I have taken opinion as exact science, because that is how it is presented. And I have lost hugely in the process.

To protect ourselves against this, let’s do the following:

Ask about the assumptions that have to hold true for a statement to be true and correct. Ask yourself if it is laboratory science, or an opinion (hopefully) based on experience. Ask yourself if what ever is said can be exclusively true. In other words, 1+1 = 2. That excludes any other possibility. On the other hand, cold calling, sending out pamphlets, attending network meetings does not have to be exclusive activities, in fact, it is probably a very good idea to do al of them.

Beware of anything that is presented as exclusive. The moment somebody tells you that property is a better investment than shares – “run, Forest, run” (with apologies to Forest Gump).

Be careful when people make their own likes and dislikes the norm, like “SMS does not work, because I feel it is an intrusion of my privacy.”  It is an absolutely valid point, but not neceserrily generally applicable and definetly in all circumstances. 

Never just accept anything at face value, listen critically. That, as I have said many times, includes everything you read on The Blue Roof.

But is it science?  It seems like a nonsense question, the problem is somebody else’s opinion presented as fact can cost YOU money!

 

 

About science and would-be science

Friday, November 27th, 2009

Today I am going to start with a few very controversial statements. Some deliberately and others meant as a bit of humour, but the lesson is very important and very real.

 I have always loved maths and science. No, I can’t say that I understand it, but I still love it. I guess it is like men and women – no man will ever understand a woman, but we still love you! The definition of science is that you can prove it wrong. Which means there is a thesis – metal expands with heat. Science tries to find a metal that does not expand with heat. I love this – you can do experiments and confirm the theory – or notice that the theory has limits. Just read Stephen Hawkin’s A Brief History of Time.

 At the same time I don’t consider psychology, sociology and the other “soft sciences” as science. In fact, I don’t even consider the other love of my life, economics, as science. At best it is a theory, but you can never really proof it wrong. Where maths and physics and chemistry are exact science, the “soft science” are very grey and very “woolly”. Take astrology as an example. Astrologers would also claim that what they do are science – but you can never proof it wrong. I am a Gemini (actually an octet in one body), and everyday I read “my fortune” in the newspaper. It can always be applicable, but I can never proof it wrong. And per implication, neither can I proof it right!

 If the above raised your hackles – good, the blood is pumping through your veins.

 Now for the important lessons.

 Too often we accept a theory, a hypothesis, and idea for fact. And too often a mere idea, whimsical at best, is presented as fact and science. And I have seen it many times. And we need to be aware of it.

 Consultants of all sorts grow stinking rich by selling ideas as fact – but rarely, if ever, take responsibility for their ideas.

 Take one example that I know very well: getting clients by cold calling. I wish I had $1 for every book and article ever written on the subject (I would buy Microsoft from my back pocket). Some people say cold calling does not work. Others say it works, just use my system. Others say that system stinks, you have to use my system. And so every one has an idea and sells his idea as gospel truth. But, and this is the important thing, it is just an idea. You can never proof it right or wrong. It might work for you, but not for me. It might work in Mexico, but not in Texaco. It might work in November 2009, but not December 2009.

 This same thing happens with our finances. Just listen to economists about the economy and all the various remedies that is offered. One economist suggest a drastic interest rate cut, another suggest an increase. And, as somebody once said, an economist is always right, it is just his timing that is out! Some science – I love it!

 And then closer to ourselves – what about so called financial planners, consultants, investment guru’s, internet marketing guru’s and all the other people that have an exact plan to make you stinking rich? My perception is that all these people make good money, but few of their clients ever grow stinking rich?

 And I am not trying to warn you away from these people, not at all. What I am trying to suggest, is that you always ask questions. Questions about assumptions, about historical results and the circumstances under which the results were achieved. And above all that you always remind yourself that only maths and physical science are actually exact science. Obviously psychologists and economists and even astrologists and consultants play an important role. But it is not an exact science – treat it as such.

 Even Stephen Hawking and his colleagues don’t think their theories are cast in stone!