Last week I got one request and one question.
The question was: “Why can we gear for income generating investments, but not for capital growth investments. What do you see as capital growth investments?” The answer is: I see shares as capital growth investments. It is generally accepted wisdom not to borrow money to buy shares. The bank manager will not be very excited if you approach him with a request to borrow money to buy shares. On the other hand, granting bonds to buy property is standard practice for the banks.
The request was that I do some calculations. If we take a 20 year view what would offer a better return, shares or property. First of all, let me emphasise again, it is not either shares or property. It is shares and property. It is the sequence that matters. First property to generate income, then shares.
The assumptions are the following:
Inflation = 8%
Initial investment = R2 000 per month increasing by 10% per annum.
Dividend yield of 3% re-invested
Bond rate over the period average 12%
Cost of property R400 000
Rent = R3 500 per month
Management (for rental agent) = 10% of rent
Levies and taxes = R500
And irrespective of what the value after 20 years will be, we will compare the results in TODAY’S money. In other words, what can I buy with the money TODAY.
If we invest in shares, the results look like this:
IRR = 20.66%
Present Value of Investment = R2 101 313
Present Value of the money leaving my pocket = R303 211
Monthly income for 20 years = R8 755 and after 20 years I have no capital left (I admit it is a crude calculation).
If we invest in property:
We buy 1 property and pay the difference between income and expenses for 5 years, the annual cash flow looking like this:
-21 052 -17 872 -13 714 -9 140 -4 109
IRR = 31.37%
Present Value of Investment = R864 862
Present Value of the money leaving my pocket = R40 622
Income from this property R3 500.
If my income is R20 000 per month, I need to buy 6 of these properties. If we stick to the assumptions, the end result is as follows:
PV of Investment = 864 862 x 6 = R5 189 172
PV of the money leaving my pocket = 40 622 x 6 = R243 732
Monthly income FOR LIFE and left to children = R3 500 x 6 = R21 000
And perhaps we can say we have R303 211 – 243 732 = R59 479 to invest in shares.
Forget about the detail of the calculations, that will differ from person to person. Once again, look at the logic and think about how easy it really is to become financially free.
And if you have a question – comment, or pietm3(at)yahoo.com