Posts Tagged ‘Financial Planning’

To Trust or not to Trust, That is the Question!

Monday, October 6th, 2008

People new to property often ask about trusts:  “Do you think I should have a trust?”  Now that is almost like asking: “How long is a piece of string?”  There is not a one-size-fits-all answer to this question.

 

So let me give you a few pointers:

It is more important to invest in property than it is to have a trust.  We will look at some advantages of trusts just now, but being financially free is more important than having a trust.

 

You owe it to yourself and your children to be financially free.  It is admirable to want to leave a legacy for your children, but is more important to be financially free and not a financial burden on your children than it is to have a trust.

 

A trust is fine, but it also costs money to set up and to run.  It is fine if you can afford it, but from what I said above, I would rather use as much money as possible to acquire as many properties as possible before I have a trust.

 

Now, I am not against trusts, absolutely not.  I am against the idea that EVERYBODY MUST HAVE A TRUST or they cannot invest in property.  I see too many people who are so entangled with trusts that they forget about property. 

 

As your property portfolio increases, you will “grow into” a trust.  As your portfolio grows, you get wealthier, your cashflow increases and so does your knowledge.  In time you will have the money and knowledge to have a trust.

 

Having said that, let me add this:  some people are already earning a lot, they have major assets, they have knowledge and experience, in other words, they can afford a trust, then they should get a trust as soon as possible.

 

What am I saying?  I remember when I was still young and studying, I went with my brother in law (a newly qualified lawyer) to a financial advisor.  They advisor asked me what I do and when I said I am a student he was not interested at all.  He said I must phone him sometime in the future.  By that time I already owned my first investment property!  But I can remember that I really felt offended.  So in a gentle, non-offending, way I am trying to convey the message that you need some money and financial sophistication before you get involved with trusts.  The good news is:  start with property, and it comes very quickly.

 

It is like most things in life:  crawl, walk, and run.  First things first.  Do the right thing for you.

 

Should you have a trust?  I really don’t know, unless you tell me what you do, what you earn, what you have, how you are married (hopefully happily?).  You see, the right answer depends on your personal situation.

 

Tomorrow we look at the pro’s and cons of trusts.

But Investments do better than Inflation?

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

I am actually surprised that nobody came back and claimed that in real life investment return is higher than inflation.  I don’t agree with that assumption either.  When I was still working as a financial planner, one of the investment companies gave us regular feedback on the return on various portfolios over different time frames.  And the inflation rate for that time period.  You know what?  Not any one portfolio could beat inflation consistently.  It might do better than inflation for a year, or two or three, but ten years and longer?  Sorry, inflation is better.  It all makes sense, of course.

 

But the bottom line is:  the assumption that the investment out performs inflation is not correct.

 

You see, they say the INDEX of the stock market outperforms inflation, and I will agree with that.  But there is no money to be made by selling the index, so you are strongly discouraged to buy the index by references to the funds that actually did outperform the index in that year!  The real life situation is that the index does better than 75% of the portfolios.  In other words, only 4 in every 100 portfolio’s do better than the index.  Unfortunately it is NOT the same portfolio’s every year.  So, how do you know on 1 January which portfolio will do better than the index by 31 December?  You don’t.

 

And keep in mind, am talking portfolio.  The portfolio consists of YOUR money AFTER costs.  So if the portfolio grows by 10%, it is your net investment that grows by 10%, not the money leaving your pocket. 

 

That means that we should actually have increased the amount of money that we need to save to allow for costs! 

 

But enough of that, you understand that I don’t accept the assumption that investments outperform inflation.

 

But I can be wrong.  So, let’s say we stick to the generally accepted rule of saving 15% of income for retirement. 

 

I am going to do two calculations:

1.         I want the equivalent of R10 000 per month for 20 years 40 years from now.  And 40 years from now inflation = investment return.  But for the next 40 years inflation will be 6%.  What investment return do I need?  The answer is:  12%, or double the inflation rate.  The 12% is not inconceivable, but double the inflation rate?  That just does not correspond to reality.  Once again, I am not talking about spikes where you get a 20% return in 1 year.  I am talking returns over 40 years.

 

2.  I want the equivalent of R10 000 per month for 20 years after 40 years and I assume the investment return is 3% above inflation.  How much should I invest?

 

The answer looks like this:  In 40 years time I need R19 182 670.  To get that at 9% per annum (3% above inflation) I need to consistently save 22,7% of my gross income for 40 years.

 

I still don’t think that is achievable.  What do you think?