Posts Tagged ‘Marketing’

Then I was not a fool …

Thursday, September 11th, 2008

In my last few posts I had it about being a fool and paying too much for anything.  I want to share with you this true story from my own life.

 

A couple of years ago I was looking at buying a filling station.  I saw an advertisement and phoned the agent.  We went to the site.  The station use to sell about 350 000 liters per month, but “because the last owner was no-good”, it was now only doing 90 000 liters.  There was no shop, no extras.  Just a couple of old pumps tended by almost dead attendants.  I said the price is too high and the agent referred me to the contact person at the oil company.

 

Now let me give you some background on the station.  Although the site is on a very busy road and very close to many industries, it is not a nice area – I would not allow my daughter or wife to work there, it feels unsafe.  For a long time it was the only station in the area, but I knew that another oil company opened a site a couple of kilometers away.  Theoretically the new site should not influence this one, but theory and reality is not always the same.

 

So I phone the contact person and asked him about the site.  His opening words were historical – the site did do 350 000 liters before and it could do the same again.  I reminded him that the site was doing much less and without an operator would do even worse.  He agreed with me.

 

Then we got to the price and I said I think they are selling the site as if it were doing about 180 000 liters, double what it is doing.  “Yes, you are right.”  “But why are you doing it?”  Says Mr Oil Company:  “But surely you realize the site has potential?”  “Of course I realize it, that is why I am interested.  But what you are asking me to do is to buy the potential, work very hard for long hours without any pay to realize the potential.  And only then will it be worth what you are asking for it.  In other words, you want ME to pay in advance for MY efforts?  I am not going to that!  In fact, you should pay me while I build up the site!” 

 

At this he laughed and said:  “You are absolutely right, I have never thought of it that way.  But it does not matter if you don’t buy, we will get somebody else who will pay our price.”

 

From time to time I drive past this site (even fill up sometimes) and it is definitely not doing close to 350 000 liters.  In fact, I would be surprised if it did more than 200 000.  If I did buy it (the first fool), then today I would only be able to sell it at 200 000 liters – I would never be paid for my own efforts!  I might even have lost everything I own, like the previous owner.  And I can testify to this:  I have never been able to find a second fool.

 

But always remember what Mr Oil Company said:  “We will find somebody who will pay our price.”  Just be sure that YOU are NOT that person. 

 

Be Wise, Buy Wisely.

Marketers love Fools

Tuesday, September 9th, 2008

I simply love this story (I don’t think it is funny, I think it is true, which does not mean that it cannot be funny …)  A man arrived at the Pearly Gates and St Peter said he may enter.  Just before entering, he looks back and sees a cloud where food, wine and beer is free and served by topless girls.  “What is that?”  he asks of St Peter.  “That is hell” replies St Peter.  The man enquires if heaven has the same facility, which St Peter denies.  “Well, can I rather go there, then?” asks the man.  St Peter nods and replies: “Just jump.”  The man jumps and falls through the cloud and lands in the hot coals of hell where the devil works him into even hotter coals with his 3-pronged fork.  The man objects that he did not intend to come here, but rather aimed for the cloud in the sky.  “Yes, I know” says the Devil, “but that is marketing department.”

The point of this story is that we are very often taken in by marketing hype.  We believe the promises – because we want to, or because we need to or because we want to be known as the person who struck the deal of the century. Or for whatever reason.

A few years ago there were a couple of new property developments in our area.  If you listened to the marketers, it could have been a piece of heaven they were selling!  EVERYBODY would like to live there, to such an extend that they would pay more than double what they could pay for a bigger flat a kilometer away.  And capital growth?  Just wait 5 years and this flat that you now buy for R1 000 000 will be worth at least R5 000 000, if not more, with buyers breaking the door down to buy.  Amazing! 

What were the facts (I believe figures don’t lie):  The flats were selling at R1 000 000, the cost per square meter much, much more than anywhere else.  The rental was expected to be R3 500 per month.  In other words, the return on your R1 000 000 would be 4.2% per year!  At the time the repayment on a bond of R1 000 000 was about R14 000 per month.  No ways did this make sense.

But everybody who bought told everybody else what a good investment it is.  And how stupid you are that you are not buying.  I mean, after all, who would not want to buy an investment that everybody else would kill for?  And when the rental guarantee ran out?  Some of those same people wanted to sell their flats for any price.  It is now about 5 years later and people still battle to sell their flats at R750 000! 

The moral of the story?  Be very careful of the marketing department, they love fools.  Tomorrow I will write something more about the marketing department.  Until then, buy wise …