Posts Tagged ‘Retirement’

The Halloween Part

Monday, September 29th, 2008

For a couple of days now, I have been telling you how you can easily do your own financial calculations.  And when you start calculating, it becomes very scary.  Now let me share the scariest fact of all:

 

If you retire today, with the assumption that inflation = investment return, and that your income will increase by the inflation rate for 20 years, that is 240 months, what happens in month 241?

 

You will have no money left.  Let me repeat that:  you will have no money left.

 

Assumptions:

Required initial income is R10 000 per month for 20 years.  Income and capital grows by 6% per annum (inflation = investment growth rate).  That means that I need R10 000 X 12 X 20 = R2 400 000 in capital

 

Look at the table below.  After 20 years (in the Table Year 19) I run out of capital!  So what are you going to do in month 241?

 

 

6.00%

2,400,000

6.00%

Year

Income

Capital

Growth

0

120,000

2,280,000

136,800

1

127,200

2,289,600

137,376

2

134,832

2,292,144

137,529

3

142,922

2,286,751

137,205

4

151,497

2,272,459

136,348

5

160,587

2,248,219

134,893

6

170,222

2,212,890

132,773

7

180,436

2,165,228

129,914

8

191,262

2,103,879

126,233

9

202,737

2,027,375

121,642

10

214,902

1,934,116

116,047

11

227,796

1,822,367

109,342

12

241,464

1,690,245

101,415

13

255,951

1,535,708

92,143

14

271,308

1,356,542

81,393

15

287,587

1,150,348

69,021

16

304,842

914,527

54,872

17

323,133

646,265

38,776

18

342,521

342,521

20,551

19

363,072

0

0

 

Understand the Table.  At the beginning of year 1 I take out R120 000 for my first 12 months income.  I invest the balance.  Beginning of year 2, I take out what I need and invest the balance.  And I carry on like that.  In year 19, I only have available exactly what I need for the year.  Do I hear somebody say:  “I will earn interest on the money for the year.”  I hope you do, but the effect is negligible.

 

How many people do you know or know of, who, a couple of years ago took a severance package, or who retired and are now working again, because they obviously have to?  In all probability, this is the reason.

 

Or as the Financial Mail article said:  “The luckier retirees live off alternatives such as rental income, or their children. Others don’t even have those resources.” Read it here.  So there is the answer and the solution!  You have a choice:  invest in property or have children!

Are you a luckier retiree?

Monday, September 29th, 2008

Over the last couple of days I gave you two tools to quickly and simply calculate BALL PARK figures.  I use it all the time.  Instead of going to my HP10B Financial Calculator or pulling out MS Excel, I use the rule of 72 and the Capital Calculation.  It very gives me an idea if I should listen or not.

 

Essentially what we have seen is that we need a lot of money to retire.  And the huge projected maturity values are not so huge.

 

But underlying the traditional Financial Planning Solution are a number of assumptions.  I am going to discuss some of those assumptions.  Before I get to that, I want to refer you to an excellent book:  Po:  Beyond Yes and No, by Edward de Bono.  I would love to discuss the book in more depth, but suffice for the moment that De Bono says before we say “Yes” or “No”, let’s first say “Po”, what assumptions must hold true for this to be true.  That is what I am going to do.

 

Po:  What is the basic assumptions underlying the Traditional Financial Planning Solution?

Answer:  You have enough available cash to save enough money for retirement.

 

The basic assumption is that very month you can invest a percentage of your income so that, when you retire, you have enough capital.  In the previous posts I have shown you a way to easily do the calculations.  Unfortunately I do not have an easy way to calculate the monthly saving you need to make to get to the end result.  So I am going to give you the answer.

 

But, first, the assumptions:

Present Income

R10 000

Present Value Monthly Income Required

R10 000

Years to Retirement

40

Inflation

6%

Investment Return

6%

Life Expectancy after Retirement

20

 

This is what I need:

Capital Needed if Retiring Today

10 000 x 12 x 20 =

R2 400 000

Rule of 72

72/6 =

12

Number of “doublings”

40/12 =

3.33

Capital Required at Retirement

2 400 000 x2   =

4 800 000 x 2 =

10 600 000 x 2 =

19 200 000 x 1.33 =

R4 800 000

R10 600 000

R19 200 000

R25 536 000

The real figure is

 

R24 685 723

 

So how much do I have to save monthly to achieve that?

The assumptions are the same, except that I assume our income increase by the inflation rate every year.  As you can see in the table below, the fact that I work with a Rough and simple ballpark figure does not make a huge difference. 

 

Understanding what you see.  Every year my income INCREASE by the inflation rate (I used 6%) and I invest almost 55% of my salary and get a return of 6% per annum.  After 40 years I have the capital to sustain myself at the equivalent of R10 000 per month for 240 months.  My income will increase annually by the inflation rate.  If the assumptions hold true, I will be able to do it for exactly 240 months.  

 

 

The Rough And Simple Calculation

The “Correct” Calculation

Year

Income

Saving

Capital

Interest

% of Income

Saving

Capital

Interest

% of Income

1

120,000

65,791

65,791

3,947

54.83%

63,600

63,600

3,816

53.00%

2

127,200

69,738

139,476

8,369

54.83%

67,416

134,832

8,090

53.00%

3

134,832

73,922

221,767

13,306

54.83%

71,461

214,383

12,863

53.00%

4

142,922

78,358

313,431

18,806

54.83%

75,749

302,994

18,180

53.00%

5

151,497

83,059

415,296

24,918

54.83%

80,294

401,468

24,088

53.00%

6

160,587

88,043

528,256

31,695

54.83%

85,111

510,667

30,640

53.00%

7

170,222

93,325

653,277

39,197

54.83%

90,218

631,525

37,891

53.00%

8

180,436

98,925

791,398

47,484

54.83%

95,631

765,047

45,903

53.00%

9

191,262

104,860

943,743

56,625

54.83%

101,369

912,319

54,739

53.00%

10

202,737

111,152

1,111,519

66,691

54.83%

107,451

1,074,509

64,471

53.00%

20

363,072

199,056

3,981,123

238,867

54.83%

192,428

3,848,563

230,914

53.00%

30

650,207

356,479

10,694,377

641,663

54.83%

344,609

10,338,284

620,297

53.00%

35

870,123

477,050

16,696,737

1,001,804

54.83%

461,165

16,140,782

968,447

53.00%

39

1,098,510

602,264

23,488,302

1,409,298

54.83%

582,210

22,706,207

1,362,372

53.00%

40

1,164,421

638,400

25,536,000

1,532,160

54.83%

617,143

24,685,723

1,481,143

53.00%

 

 

If I consistently saved 15% of my salary for 40 years, how much would I have?  R6 986 525. How much would that be today?  A whopping  R679 245 and it will give me the very grand income of R2830 per month.

 

Now back to the assumption:  Based on what we have seen above (that you have to save more than 50% of your gross income to be able to be retired for 20 years, do you think it is a valid assumption to say you can save enough to provide for retirement?

 

Hey, do you have children?  Do you have property?  In other words, are you a luckier retiree?